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TidelineData as of 13 Nov 2026
Open ModelWhat this page answers: can the fees from NEAR’s swap service ever buy back as many NEAR coins as the network creates each year?
2 Bullish, 2 Neutral, 1 Not Measured.Two signs look good, two are unclear, and one cannot be answered right now.
Verdict on hold (PREREG A2): the treasury carried 96% of counted USD over the last 7 days, so Solver Competition reads Not Measured. Score +3 of 7; lost data may not move the verdict.Overall answer on hold: nearly every dollar now trade in private, out of public view. The visible answers score +3 of 7, but missing data may not move the overall answer.
At $3.31 a NEAR, with all revenue spent on buybacks. The Confidential Intents treasury carried 96% of counted USD over the last 7 frozen days. Confidential share 97%: other accounts' deposits into the treasury as a share of the flow still visible (7 of 7 days read).Think of a tug of war. Each year the network creates new NEAR coins (), pulling the supply up. Part of every swap fee on is used to buy NEAR back (), pulling it down. If buybacks win, the supply shrinks (). This assumes NEAR costs $3.31 and all of NEAR’s fee income goes to buybacks.
$7.9B
short each month at 1.6% issuancestill missing each month at 1.6% issuance
Pricing PowerWhen fees go up, do people stop swapping?
Elasticity −0.06 (−1.64 to 1.51), fee-tagged (token_diff) swaps onlyBarely, as far as we can tell, but the data is too thin to be sure (−0.06)
NEAR's Share of FeesDoes NEAR keep a fair share of the fees?
32% last 30 daysNEAR keeps 32% of the swap fees (last 30 days)
Solver CompetitionDo the traders really compete?
Flow went private: treasury 96% of USDNearly every dollar went private, so we can’t see the traders right now
Largest IntegratorDoes one app bring most of the business?
SwapKit 76% of visible app feesThe biggest app, SwapKit, brings 76% of the app fees we can see
Path to DeflationIs NEAR's fee income growing?
90-day revenue rose over the last 3 monthsYes: it rose at each of the last three month-ends (90-day total)
Why It Is on Hold
96% Private
Treasury carried 96% of counted USD over the last 7 days. The verdict returns at 50% or less (PREREG A2).Nearly every dollar now trade in private. The overall answer comes back once that is no more than 5 of every 10 dollars.
Score, on Hold
+3 of 7
Score +3 of 7, on hold: lost data may not move the verdict.Score +3 of 7, on hold: missing data may not move the overall answer.
What Nobody Can See
Fewer public swaps is not less demand.Fewer public swaps does not mean fewer people swapping.
As of 13 Nov, the verdict is on hold at Undecided (PREREG A2). The score is +3 of 7, but data lost to private flow may not move it. It returns when the treasury share falls back to 50% or less.
Pointing Bullish: NEAR's share of fees is 32% over the last 30 days and revenue has risen over each of the last three months. In between: one integrator brings much of the fees but stays under the 80% line (SwapKit 76% of visible app fees). The DefiLlama figures come from a dataset nobody can re-run for free. Pricing Power is not settled: the data cannot yet say whether raising a fee helps or hurts revenue.
Not measured because flow went private: Solver Competition. The Confidential Intents treasury, a bridge to a private chain, carried 96% of the USD counted over the last 7 frozen days and 44% over the last 30. Side figures that set no reading: other accounts' funds going into it were 97% of the flow we can see (7 of 7 days read) and top 3 solvers hold 85% of public swaps.
Fewer public swaps is not less demand: swaps that move to the private chain leave the public record either way. Hidden: fees on confidential swaps, which solver filled them, and any flow that stays shielded.
With all revenue spent on buybacks, monthly volume must reach about 3.1x today's level to cover the 1.6% issuance plan (passed its vote, not in force yet), or 4.9x if issuance stays at 2.5%.
Good signs (): NEAR keeps a fair share of the fees; NEAR’s fee income is growing. Unclear (): whether a higher fee brings in more money or less is not settled yet; the biggest app brings much of the fees, but under the 80% line. Two of these answers use numbers, which nobody can re-run for free.
Nearly every dollar counted over the last 7 went through the doorway into NEAR’s private system () (about 4 of every 10 dollars over the last 30). So “Do the traders really compete?” cannot be answered (). Shown for interest, counting toward no answer: nearly every dollar of the flow we can see went private (7 of 7 days read) and the three biggest traders fill 85% of the public swaps. Fewer swaps in public view does not mean fewer people swapping: those swaps moved out of view. Still hidden: the fees on private swaps, who filled them, and any money that stays private.
As of 13 Nov, the overall answer is on hold (). A rule written before the results says missing data may not move it, so it waits, at a score of +3 of 7, until no more than 5 of every 10 dollars go private again.
For buybacks to cancel out new coins, the money swapped each month would need to grow to about 3 times today’s under the 1.6% plan (voted in, not yet in force), or about 5 times if issuance stays at 2.5%.
Tideline asks whether NEAR Intents fees could ever cover the new NEAR being issued. This is research, not financial advice.
A Bullish reading means the evidence passed a line set in advance, not that the price will rise.
Tideline asks whether NEAR’s swap fees could ever buy back as many NEAR coins as the network creates each year. This is research, not financial advice.
A answer means the evidence passed a line written down in advance, not that the price will go up.
Get a message when a reading changes side and holds for three days, plus a short note every Monday.Get a message when one of the answers changes and stays changed for three days, plus a short note every Monday.
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