What Would Move Each ReadingWhat Would Change Each Answer

ReadingQuestion

Moves Toward Bullish When

Moves Toward Bearish When

Pricing PowerWhen fees go up, do people stop swapping?

Elasticity −0.06 (−1.64 to 1.51), fee-tagged (token_diff) swaps onlyBarely, as far as we can tell, but the data is too thin to be sure (−0.06)

Neutral

The whole elasticity interval sits above −1: raising fees raises revenue.The whole likely range of elasticity sits above −1: raising fees brings in more money.

The whole interval sits below −1: raising fees lowers revenue.The whole range sits below −1: raising fees brings in less money.

NEAR's Share of FeesDoes NEAR keep a fair share of the fees?

32% last 30 daysNEAR keeps 32% of the swap fees (last 30 days)

Bullish

NEAR's share of fees (DefiLlama revenue over fees) is above 30% over the last 30 days.NEAR keeps more than 30% of the fees over the last 30 days, as DefiLlama counts it.

The share has been under 20% on each of the last 14 days.NEAR keeps under 20% on each of the last 14 days.

Solver CompetitionDo the traders really compete?

Flow went private: treasury 96% of USDNearly every dollar went private, so we can’t see the traders right now

Not Measured

Solvers keep under 5 bps on $1k to $10k swaps and the top 3 solvers hold under 60%.Traders (solvers) keep under 5 bps on $1k to $10k swaps, and the three biggest fill under 60%.

Solvers keep over 10 bps, or the top 3 hold over 80%.Traders keep over 10 bps, or the three biggest fill over 80%.

Largest IntegratorDoes one app bring most of the business?

SwapKit 76% of visible app feesThe biggest app, SwapKit, brings 76% of the app fees we can see

Neutral

The largest integrator (frontend) brings under 50% of the last 30 days of app fees.The biggest app brings under 50% of the last 30 days of fees.

The largest integrator brings over 80% of those fees.The biggest app brings over 80% of those fees.

Path to DeflationIs NEAR's fee income growing?

90-day revenue rose over the last 3 monthsYes: it rose at each of the last three month-ends (90-day total)

Bullish

The 90-day revenue total rose at each of the last three month-ends.NEAR’s fee income over 90 days went up at each of the last three month-ends.

The 90-day revenue total fell at each of the last three month-ends.It went down at each of the last three month-ends.

Anything between the two lines reads Neutral, and exactly on a line counts as Neutral. Missing data reads Not Measured. Two lines (Q2 and Q4) were set after the current figures were seen; PREREG.md section 1 says so. Solver Competition reads Not Measured when the Confidential Intents treasury carries over 50% of its last 7 frozen days, and Largest Integrator when it carries over 50% of its last 30. While either is Not Measured for that reason, the verdict stays Undecided whatever the score, so a loss of data cannot move it (PREREG.md amendment A2).Between the two lines the answer is Neutral, and exactly on a line counts as Neutral. Missing data reads Not Measured. Two lines (the second and fourth) were set after the current figures were seen, and PREREG.md says so. While more than half the money moves through the private system, “Do the traders really compete?” and “Does one app bring most of the business?” cannot be measured, and the overall answer stays Undecided whatever the score, so lost data cannot move it.